7 Ongoing Education
The bear's back and it's not pretty.
Jul/02/08 08:44 PM
So it’s been 5 1/2 years since the last bear market. From the high in October the Dow is just over 20% down and that meets the most common definition of a bear market. The Nasdaq joined the Dow with a loss of 21.3% for the year.
How often do we have bear markets?
They tend to appear every four to five years. (There have been 19 in the last 100 years.)
How long do they last?
An average of 18 months.
How far do they fall?
The market decline is an average of 36%.
What’s the good news?
They can provide great buying opportunities for equities. According to this Financial Times blog, in the last 100 years the best times to buy were 1921, 1932, 1948 and 1982. So while things might get uglier, the upside is this could be a great time to buy equities.
How is Belray handling the bear market?
Our strategy of investing like universities means we’re very diversified and our average portfolio is only slightly down for the year. Our rebalancing rules allow us to take advantage of these market declines.
Important Disclosure
Quotes from Bogle, Buffet, Graham, Lynch, Miller and Templeton
Apr/11/08 04:12 PM
I never grow tired of studying great investors. Here
are a few of my favorite quotes:
Warren Buffett - "Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy. Profit from folly rather than participate in it."
John Templeton - "Invest at the point of maximum pessimism."
Peter Lynch - "Absent a lot of surprises, stocks are relatively predictable over twenty years. As to whether they're going to be higher or lower in two to three years, you might as well flip a coin to decide."
Benjamin Graham - "Even the intelligent investor is likely to need considerable willpower to keep from following the crowd."
John Bogle - "When reward is at its pinnacle, risk is near at hand."
Bill Miller - "The market does reflect the available information, as the professors tell us. But just as the funhouse mirrors don't always accurately reflect your weight, the markets don't always accurately reflect that information. Usually they are too pessimistic when it's bad, and too optimistic when it's good."
Important Disclosure
Warren Buffett - "Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy. Profit from folly rather than participate in it."
John Templeton - "Invest at the point of maximum pessimism."
Peter Lynch - "Absent a lot of surprises, stocks are relatively predictable over twenty years. As to whether they're going to be higher or lower in two to three years, you might as well flip a coin to decide."
Benjamin Graham - "Even the intelligent investor is likely to need considerable willpower to keep from following the crowd."
John Bogle - "When reward is at its pinnacle, risk is near at hand."
Bill Miller - "The market does reflect the available information, as the professors tell us. But just as the funhouse mirrors don't always accurately reflect your weight, the markets don't always accurately reflect that information. Usually they are too pessimistic when it's bad, and too optimistic when it's good."
Important Disclosure